The Philippines is in a State of Climate Emergency and the Poor are Suffering the Most
Within the past month alone, the Philippines experienced three typhoons and two tropical storms. Although naturally occurring and predicted, the typhoons ravaged communities and destroyed countless lives because of the immense strength of their winds. This led civil society groups to demand a declaration of a State of Climate Emergency because the magnitude of these typhoons have become exponentially stronger than those in the past.The President of the Philippines is reportedly still mulling over whether to declare a State of Climate Emergency, begging the question, “Is there evidence that could support this claim?” I reviewed data from Super-typhoon Haiyan in 2013, which shows that these occurrences have become stronger over the past ten years, and may be largely due to anthropogenic climate change.
The map below shows the reported geophysical hazards in the Philippines, particularly on the risk to typhoons of each geo-political region in the country. The darkest shade of green represents areas that have “very high” risk to typhoons, while the lightest shade of green are those that have “very low” risk. The map shows that regions in the northern-most part of the country have the highest risk to typhoons based on historical data of typhoons that have entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
However, despite being published after Super-typhoon Haiyan, the historical data based on the previous map no longer represents actual occurrences in the country. The map below shows the path of Super-typhoon Haiyan in 2013, as well as the regions that were affected, outlined in pink.
Super-typhoon Haiyan originated from the east-southeast of the Philippines. It entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Category 5 tropical cyclone (wind speed of 156 mph and above) until it exited northwest. Based on these findings, Super-typhoon Haiyan made landfall in regions that have historically considered low to medium risk to typhoons. In fact, in the southern part of the Philippines, regions that are considered very low risk were also affected.
Although the typhoon was anticipated before it made landfall, its impact was unexpected. Several civil society groups have raised this as a concern brought about by climate change. Simply, the typhoons in the present — and perhaps in the future — are no longer as predictable or mild as those in the past. Hence, it is imperative for the government to declare a State of Climate Emergency. This would give precedence to take the necessary measures to protect the people, especially those who are most vulnerable.
The President of the Philippines has not made a conclusive decision about taking proactive steps towards the situation. However, this should be deemed urgent because the most vulnerable communities are also the poorest. Following the case of Haiyan, some of the poorest regions were indeed affected.
Referring to the map below, the middle-eastern area of the country, which was first hit by the typhoon, has a reported poverty incidence of between 41.3–71.9%. Further, the regions along the typhoon’s path have higher poverty incidence rates than the northern and northwestern parts of the country. This demonstrates that one typhoon alone could affect the poorest and most vulnerable communities and families.
Moving forward, the paths and magnitude of the recent typhoons in 2020 could help support whether the geophysical hazard maps should be reassessed to consider the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Similarly, an updated poverty incidence map would help us understand how these typhoons are affecting the poorest communities.
Notes:
Basemap: Carto Light no labels
Map 1: Source: Risk to Typhoons (https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/GeodataSystems::risk-to-typhoons?geometry=172.737%2C-17.383%2C65.334%2C40.120)
I color-coded the map by category based on each region’s risk to typhoons. I used a green gradient, where the lightest shade was the least severe and the darkest shade was most severe (very to very high).
Map 2: Sources: Typhoon Haiyan Storm Path (local name in the Philippines: (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/philippines-other-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0) and Municipal Boundaries of Typhoon Haiyan Affected Areas: (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/philippines-other-0-0-0-0-0)
I added the storm path to demonstrate where and how it made landfall in the country. To illustrate the gravity of the storm, I color-coded the path with a red-orange gradient using the variable on wind speed. I used circle markers with 70% opacity so that the affected regions could be seen through the storm path. The map shows that at 195 mph, the typhoon was already within the outer bounds of the Philippine land area.
Map 3: Source: Poverty Incidence (https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/28c8a0b4dc074d9ab8bd73ec7d4acf32_0)
I used a gradient to demonstrate the scale of poverty incidence rates. The highest section was a 41.3 to 71.9% poverty incidence rate, shaded in dark blue. I kept the storm path from the previous map to demonstrate how affected communities were based on poverty levels.